Latest Quinnipiac Poll: “Romney Catches Obama in Virginia”

FOR RELEASE: JULY 19, 2012

 

ROMNEY CATCHES OBAMA IN VIRGINIA,

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;

U.S. SENATE RACE REMAINS TOO CLOSE TO CALL

 

Republican challenger Mitt Romney wipes out President Barack Obama’s lead in Virginia and the two candidates are deadlocked 44 – 44 percent in the race for the Old Dominion’s 13 electoral votes, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 50 – 42 percent lead for President Obama in a March 20 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University and a 47 – 42 percent Obama lead June 7.

In the state’s hotly-contested U.S. Senate race Republican George Allen has 46 percent to 44 percent for Democrat Tim Kaine.

By a narrow 47 – 44 percent, voters say Romney would do a better job on the economy.  But voters support 59 – 36 percent Obama’s call to raise income taxes on households making more than $250,000 per year.  Support is strong among all income groups – except voters in households making more than $250,000 per year, where 48 percent support the idea and 51 percent oppose it.

In the presidential race, Romney takes Republicans 91 – 4 percent while Obama takes Democrats 92 – 4 percent.  Independent voters are divided with 40 percent for Obama and 38 percent for Romney.  The president leads 46 – 41 percent among women while Romney wins with men 46 – 42 percent.  White voters go to Romney 55 – 33 percent while black voters back Obama 88 – 1 percent.

“Virginia voters are sharply split along gender and political lines about the presidential race.  The two candidates equally hold their own political bases and are splitting the key independent vote down the middle,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“One small edge that President Barack Obama has is likability.  Voters have a slightly more favorable opinion of the president than they do Gov. Mitt Romney.”

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Quinnipiac University Poll/July 19, 2012 – page 2

“But neither man is exactly Mr. Popularity: Romney has a negative 39 – 42 percent favorability, compared to Obama’s divided 46 – 48 percent.  One of them is going to win the White House, but neither would get elected Prom King,” Brown added.

Virginia voters disapprove 51 – 45 percent of the job Obama is doing and say 50 – 47 percent he does not deserves a second term in office.

In the U.S. Senate race, neither former governor has managed a lead outside the margin of error since Quinnipiac University began polling the race last year.

Today, Republicans back Allen 92 – 4 percent while Democrats back Kaine 87 – 5 percent.  Independent voters go 44 percent for Kaine and 42 percent for Allen, a tie.  Men back Allen 50 – 43 percent, while women are split with 45 percent for Kaine and 42 percent for Allen.

“The Senate race remains a dog fight and every indication is it will remain that way until November 6,” said Brown.  “Interestingly the vast majority of voters say their votes in the Senate race will be about the candidates themselves and have no relation to their feelings about the president.”

Obama is not a factor in how they will vote for Senator, 61 percent of Virginia voters say, while 15 percent say their Senate choice is a vote for the president and 19 percent say they are voting against the president.

Allen has a 43 – 28 percent favorability rating while Kaine has a 43 – 34 percent favorability.

Virginia voters are split 47 – 47 percent on whether they agree with the Supreme Court’s decision upholding the president’s health care plan.  But by 50 – 43 percent they want Congress to repeal the law.

The court’s health care decision will not affect their vote for president, 63 percent of voters say.  Another 25 percent say it will make them less likely to back the president’s re-election, while 10 percent say more likely.

From July 10 – 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,673 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.  Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more data or RSS feed– http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.